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101.
Journal of Geographical Sciences - There is a lack of basic theory and method to examine the effect of administrative division (AD) adjustment on the regional development. Based on the theory and... 相似文献
102.
基于2009年以来的GPS观测数据,利用块体模型和GPS剖面方法分别计算川滇块体东边界主要断裂带的滑动速度,并结合跨断裂带的区域应变时间序列分析断裂带现今的运动特征。结果表明:从速度场变化来看,2013—2015期的速度场在川滇块体东北部有东向增加的微弱变化;从滑动速率结果来看,鲜水河北段的左旋走滑运动有所增强,拉张运动有所增加;小江断裂带的左旋走滑运动普遍有微弱的增强;从去掉线性的区域应变时间序列结果来看,小江断裂带南段主张应变在2014年底出现了趋势性转折,值得进一步关注。 相似文献
103.
It is important to find a reliable method to estimate maximum sustainable yield(MSY) or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management, especially when the data availability is limited which is a case in China. A recently developed method(CMSY) is a data-poor method, which requires only catch data, resilience and exploitation history at the first and final years of the catch data. CMSY was used in this study to estimate the biological reference points for Largehead hairtail(Trichiurus lepturus, Temminck and Schlegel) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, based on the fishery data from China Fishery Statistical Year Books during 1986 to 2012. Additionally,Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model(BSM) and the classical surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox) performed by software CEDA and ASPIC, were also projected in this study to compare with the performance of CMSY. The estimated MSYs from all models are about 19.7×104–27.0×104 t, while CMSY and BSM yielded more reasonable population parameter estimates(the intrinsic population growth rate and the carrying capacity). The biological reference points of B/BMSY smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Largehead hairtail fishery. 相似文献
104.
采用香港11个GPS测站的观测资料进行1 h、2 h、3 h和4h静态PPP解算,获得4组PPP坐标序列,利用调和分析求取11个测站处8个主要分潮的负荷位移参数(振幅和相位),将其与海潮模型计算的负荷位移参数进行对比,并比较分析PPP反演值与海潮模型值改正海潮负荷信号的效果。结果表明,垂直和水平方向上,不同PPP结果反演8个分潮的负荷位移分别具有约5 mm和7 mm的差异;PPP反演8个分潮垂向负荷位移优于全球海潮模型,但水平方向上的反演效果稍弱。 相似文献
105.
Catastrophic failures of many tsunami barriers along the affected coasts during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami has prompted extensive investigation into improving and revising design codes for tsunami defence structures. To date, researchers and coastal engineers are investigating to understand the failure mechanisms and to find solutions so that the structures merely remain intact in the extreme event such as tsunami. Thus, the present work is motivated to experimentally study tsunami-induced bore pressures exerted on vertical seawalls; a solid vertical wall and a porous vertical seawall that consisted of a perforated front wall and a solid rear wall. Bores with various heights and velocities were generated by using the dam-break method. A porous seawall with 20% porosity of perforated front wall was used in this study. Bore pressures exerted on the solid rear wall and chamber oscillations that occurred in the experiments were also discussed. The experimental results showed that multiple peak pressures were observed during bore run-up phase in the time series of bore impacts. A predictive equation to estimate the maximum bore pressure on a perforated seawall was developed using multiple regression analysis. The proposed equation was also compared with previous empirical formulas. 相似文献
106.
利用中美德INDEPTH IV合作项目2007—2009年间布置于青藏高原中、北部140个宽频地震台站记录到的天然地震数据,经过接收函数成像处理,获得了3条穿过昆仑—阿尼玛卿缝合带清晰的壳幔结构图像.结果显示柴达木南缘莫霍面位于约50 km深度,羌塘地块、可可西里地块、东昆仑造山带莫霍面位于约65 km深度,昆仑—阿尼玛卿缝合带以北约50 km存在莫霍面深度突变.在可可西里和柴达木岩石圈地幔之间观测到北倾界面,这可能是可可西里岩石圈向北俯冲到柴达木地幔之下的证据.可可西里地块地壳内宽缓的负转换震相带是低速带的反映,其向北挤入到东昆仑山下发生挤压增厚,可能是东昆仑山隆升的原因;由于刚性柴达木岩石圈的阻挡,物质向东改向,则可能是该地区向东旋转的构造应力场产生的原因.本文研究结果不支持亚洲岩石圈地幔在东昆仑—柴达木交界处向南俯冲,据此,我们提出了新的东昆仑造山模式. 相似文献
107.
采用SeismoStruct软件建立有限元模型对某汽轮发电机组弹簧隔振基础进行时程分析,研究弹簧隔振基础的频率振型和地震响应、层间变形、弹簧变形等特性。研究表明,弹簧隔振基础的自振频率较低,竖向自振频率远离机组工作扰频;弹簧隔振装置能够在地震作用时减小台板加速度反应,并根据刚度重新分配水平地震作用,充分发挥立柱的抗震能力。结果表明基础设计符合《建筑抗震设计规范》标准,达到了弹簧隔振抗震的目标,基础设计合理、安全可靠。SeismoStrcut作为有限元分析软件,对汽机基础的模拟能够达到工程需要。 相似文献
108.
ABSTRACTCharacterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work. 相似文献
109.
川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据. 相似文献
110.
Tanju Akar 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(6):984-994
ABSTRACTSediment accumulation in a river reservoir is studied by stochastic time series models and analytical approach. The first-order moving average process is found the best for the suspended sediment discharge time series of the Juniata River at Newport, Pennsylvania, USA. Synthetic suspended sediment discharges are first generated with the chosen model after which analytical expressions are derived for the expected value and variance of sediment accumulation in the reservoir. The expected value and variance of the volume of sediment accumulation in the reservoir are calculated from a thousand synthetic time series each 38 years long and compared to the analytical approach. Stochastic and analytical approaches perfectly trace the observation in terms of the expected value and variability. Therefore, it is concluded that the expected value and variance of sediment accumulation in a reservoir could be estimated by analytical expressions without the cost of synthetic data generation mechanisms. 相似文献